September 21, 2004

Lib - Dem tango

Charles Kennedy sounded impressive on telly last night saying that the Lib-Dems wouldn't "shore up" a Labour government that the electorate had rejected. So far so clear, but the question of what would happen in the event of a hung parliament is another matter. When the electorate has spoken it doesn't usually take kindly to being asked again, so if it gives the Lib-Dems a hefty slice of seats it will expect them to use their power to some effect. Would a Labour-Lib-Dem coalition government constitute "shoring up" Labour? I doubt it. Such a government would be a new thing altogether, and Mr Kennedy would be mad not to participate on the right terms.

September 20, 2004

Lord Woolf's reforms

The Guardian reports that the Lord Chief Justice is to recommend that murderers should get up to a third off their sentences if they plead guilty from the outset of their case. Lord Woolf is one of the few people in authority to have a sensible attitude towards sentencing and is to be commended for his efforts to reduce the spiralling prison population and the ever more severe sentences that contribute to it.

The problem, of course, is the string of wrongful convictions that have bedevilled British justice for decades. Despite reforms to the criminal justice system this danger persists, with the wrongly accused already having to cope with a system of jeopardy that, for example, denies them parole if they do not show remorse (a condition of which is that they admit to the crime that they did not commit).

Under the proposed arrangements the system will become a complete lottery for this group, as it was for Lousie Woodward during the celebrated baby battering case in Boston, when she refused to admit to manslaughter and was convicted of murder instead (a conviction that the judge had to struggle hard to over turn). The system of plea bargaining may be attractive to prosecutors with a weak case but should not become institutionalised to the point when gaining a conviction becomes more important that distinguishing right from wrong.

September 13, 2004

Vying to be the next George W

To see Fahrenheit 9/11 on the third anniversary of 9/11 gave the film a certain resonance. It is mixed in its messages – that the Republicans establishment succeeded in stealing the 2000 presidential election because they were more ruthless than their Democratic opponents; that the Bush clan – and George W in particular – was bankrolled by Saudi associates including the Bin Ladens; that after 9/11 the Bush administration wasn't interested in Afghanistan and only got involved there because it couldn't not; that Iraq was the real objective, and that no opportunity was lost (i) to instil fear of terrorism in the America people and (ii) to associate 9/11 and al Qaida with Saddam Hussein in American's minds; that the war in Iraq was motivated by commercial considerations; and that the military forces required to fight it were recruited from working-class communities where alternative job prospects had been severely reduced by the Bush government's social, economic and fiscal policies.

As if to emphasise that latter point – a clip of Bush at fundraiser greeting the assembled company of the exceedingly well-heeled as “the haves and the have mores” and describing them as “my base”. Of course, it is only polite when you are asking people to write you cheques to tell them that they are important to you. He would probably have said the same to a bunch of red-necks at a barbecue. And really that is the point of Fahrenheit 9/11 – that anybody who was absurdly optimistic enough to suppose that people who succeed at politics could be idealistic in their motivations or interested in the general well-being of the human race should think again a bit quickish. The message of the film is that politics for George Bush and his associates is an exercise in consolidating wealth and power at the expense not only of the rest of the world but of much of America as well.

This is the extravagance of eighteenth century politics, from which Europeans, generally, have weaned themselves through a couple of centuries of turbulent and murderous history. Berlusconi is – frankly – an embarrassing throwback; Tony Blair a flawed idealist whose judgement proved not to be the equal of his motives. And one thing that Mike Moore makes clear in his film is how confused are the Democrats by the brazen-ness of this culture of political greed. Having colluded quietly for generations with a self-serving system they can only shake their heads in wonder at how un-embarrassed Republicans have become by the highly visible intellectual and political corruption they have sponsored.

All of which contributes to the difficulties John Kerry is experiencing as he struggles to project a distinctive and attractive Democratic message in the 2004 presidential campaign. By allowing the campaign to be fought on the issue of personality he is effectively saying he can be a better George W Bush than George W himself can: because Bush has set himself up as a war president Kerry finds himself obliged to project himself in similar terms. He's not in a position to tell the American people that the war on terror has been grossly overblown and that the war with Iraq was a grotesque and disastrous piece of self-serving political deceit, and the reason he isn't is that he voted for the latter war and he, like most of America, is still signed up for the former.

A Democratic administration that comes in on a Republican agenda will not be able to effect the fundamental surgery that the U.S. body politic is going to require. More to the point, it could make things worse as its failure to achieve significant reform merely de-politicises the reform-minded portion of the electorate as they say “a plague on both your houses”. Add to that the as-yet unresolved situation in Iraq, which can be expected to haunt the next presidential term, and the economic problems heralded by the twin U.S. deficits, and it is hard to see how the 2005-08 term can offer anything other than stony ground, regardless of whose hand is on the plough.

It's a depressing thought that the best long term outcome for the U.S. and the world of this year's election may be for George W Bush to get his four more years, so that the Republicans rather than the Democrats reap the economic and geo-political consequences of the mistakes and excesses of his first term. In the present climate Fahrenheit 9/11 is little more than conscience-salving entertainment for well-off liberals. The subtext of the film is that things are going to have to get a great deal worse if America is really going to square up to the need for political change.

September 03, 2004

Welcome

Welcome to the latest incarnation of the Mindhenge political blog. Many people appeared to appreciate the lengthy articles I posted on the Mindhenge website but felt that the regular weekly postings lacked the element of immediacy that is the essence of political bloggery. So now that other commitments leave me short of time for writing long articles I am making a virtue out of necessity and will be posting more frequent, shorter and probably less considered thoughts. Watch this space in the next few days...